First Alert Forecast: coastal storm system to bring period of unsettled weather

WILMINGTON, N.C. (WECT) - Your First Alert Forecast centers on a frontal system that will climb the Carolina Coast between Thursday and Sunday. With warm ocean waters, this system may acquire subtropical characteristics - which would be interesting but largely immaterial to its generally mild to moderate nor’easter style impacts. Let’s go frame by frame...

Thursday and Thursday night: Expect more cloud coverage than recent days, a low to medium chance for a passing shower or thundershower, and high temperatures around 80. Fresh northeast breezes will tend toward 10 to 15 mph but may gust over 20 mph at times. Surf and rip current activity will increase and, offshore, expect building waves.

Rough offshore Thursday... Even rougher Friday into Saturday with inshore gales and storm warnings beyond 25 nautical miles... Good time to stay in port! pic.twitter.com/a4KgrkAA4j
— Gannon Medwick (@medwick) September 21, 2023

Friday and Friday night: Heavy surf and rough seas will continue to support National Weather Service rip current and marine bulletins. Heed any that you might see on your WECT Weather App. Also expect intervals of thick clouds, pockets of rain, blustery northeast winds possibly gusting over 30 mph, and temperatures holding in the 60s and 70s.

Saturday and Sunday: Chances for rain will drop from 60% Saturday to 20% Sunday. Storm rainfall tallies may vary wildly across the Cape Fear Region, from minimal to upwards of two to four inches. Blustery north winds will gradually subside, and surf and seas will slowly follow. Expect high temperatures in the 70s Saturday ahead of a slightly warmer Sunday.

Rain totals may vary wildly across the Cape Fear Region with the passage of a nontropical or subtropical system. These ought to be less than with Idalia, though, where three to six and locally over nine inches fell. Not all, but most of the rain will be Friday and Friday night. pic.twitter.com/P3QfBpkm6U
— Gannon Medwick (@medwick) September 21, 2023

On the tropical weather front: Hurricane Nigel is tracking for colder Icelandic waters this weekend and thus will be off the map soon. At warmer latitudes, a wave of low pressure still has a good chance to develop east of the Caribbean islands but eventual Carolina impacts, if any, from this system cannot be defined at this time.

Stay vigilant and prepared as you navigate the heart of Hurricane Season: wect.com/hurricane.

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