First Alert Forecast: rain Thursday, ending as snow Thursday night with little accumulation expected

Your First Alert Forecast for Wednesday evening Feb. 19, 2020

WILMINGTON, N.C. (WECT) - Good Wednesday evening to you and thanks for checking into your First Alert Forecast! We will see a break in the rain for most of Wednesday evening and Wednesday night with only a few patchy light showers around the area with lows in the 40s.

On Thursday, a new batch of moisture will ride along the front and up and into the Cape Fear Region. During the day, this moisture will manifest as bone-chilling rain showers with temperatures in the 40s and wind chill values in the 30s. But, as temperatures settle closer to freezing Thursday evening and Thursday night, rain will have a chance to mix with or change to snow before ending very early Friday. Snowfall is sensitive to so many factors, like warm ground and precipitation rate, so it is best to break down accumulation potential by odds...

WILMINGTON METRO AREA snow accumulation odds: NOTHING - 40%, A COATING - 40%, OVER 2″ - 20%. The most likely outcome is some snow falling with little to no accumulation.

Snow accumulation odds for INLAND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA: NOTHING - 30%, A COATING - 40%, OVER 2″ - 30%. The most likely outcome is some light accumulation perhaps up to an inch or more in some locations.

Snow accumulation odds for the BEACHES OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION: NOTHING - 50%, A COATING - 40%, OVER 2″ - 10%. The most likely outcome is some snow falling with little to no accumulation.

Based on most computer models, the snow “sweet spot” of this storm - cold, moisture, and lift - may very well be just to the north of the Cape Fear Region. For example: Goldsboro. If that nudges farther north in the next day, our local chances for an underwhelming event will grow. But, if it dips just a little south, our odds for the more impactful totals will grow.

7-day Forecast

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