WILMINGTON, NC (WECT) – The latest model runs coupled with radar information continue to show dry conditions - too dry to really facilitate accumulating sleet or snow. The forecast hasn't changed much from this morning. A brief period between now and late this evening will give us a small window of opportunity at very light frozen precipitation in southeastern North Carolina
First, it's important to understand that the amount of available moisture with this system is paltry. There just isn't a lot of it. At best some southeastern North Carolina locations could cash in on a quarter inch (.25") of precipitation. And that is a worst case scenario. Some locations may not receive a drop, including the heavily populated southern and eastern beach facing communities. I think a 50/50 shot of precipitation for those areas sounds right with a bit better chance, say 70% as you move toward northern Pender and Bladen Counties.
As far as type of precipitation, the window of opportunity for snow will be shortly opened as the system approaches from the west at dusk. As it makes its way into the area warmer air aloft will help to change things over from snow to sleet -then to a cold light rain. The entire event will be over by 5:00 am Saturday, with chilly temperatures for the weekend.
Warming is expected as we go through the week.
Here is the breakdown.
Friday 4:00pm – 6:00pm:
Bladen/Columbus/Northern Pender – Light snow/sleet possible. Light accumulations are possible. (<0.25"). While flakes may be seen in the air, rain seems just, if not more, likely.
Wilmington/New Hanover/Brunswick – Increasing clouds. Spot cold rain shower. Airborne flakes possible.
Friday 6:00pm – 11:00pm
Bladen/Columbus/Northern Pender – Light snow/sleet still possible but the temperatures will be warming aloft shutting down the chances for snow, sleet or frozen accumulation
Wilmington/New Hanover/Brunswick – Light rain. A few flakes/sleet.
Friday 11:00pm – Saturday 5:00am
Bladen/Columbus/Northern Pender – Light rain. Again some flakes possible, but with warming temperatures aloft accumulation should be light.
Wilmington/New Hanover/Brunswick – Light rain. Clearing by dawn.
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