A strong area of low pressure will develop across northern Mexico and move north across central Texas bringing copious amounts of moisture across East Texas. As this low pressure moves north it will drag a warm front north across East Texas as well, possibly as far north as I-20. Anywhere along and south of this front, in addition to heavy rain, will have a threat of severe weather including gusty winds and isolated tornadoes.
Because of the anticipated heavy rain, flash flood watches have already been issued for parts of East Texas and the rest of the area will likely be placed under a watch before the day is over. As the area of low pressure moves to our west, southerly winds just off the surface will ride over cooler easterly winds at the surface causing widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop. Many areas will see hours of heavy rain allowing widespread 2 to 4 inches of rain across East Texas with local areas likely exceeding 5 inches. This will cause rapid runoff of rainfall allowing for low lying areas to flood. Anyone one living in a low lying area should pay close attention to flash flood warnings that will likely be issued late tonight through tomorrow morning.
As mentioned earlier, there is a chance of severe weather along and south of the warm front, mainly across Deep East Texas. Due to the widespread rain and cloud cover, the amount of surface instability for thunderstorm development will be close to zero. However, the forcing along the cold front in the afternoon should be enough to force a squall line of strong thunderstorms to develop. The low level wind fields will be very strong tomorrow so any thunderstorm will be able to produce very gusty winds, 60 miles per hour or greater. There will also be a chance of an isolated weak tornado but with the lack of low level instability, the tornado threat across East Texas appears fairly low at this time.
Again this is a volatile system that will affect most of the area tomorrow. Please pay close attention to watches and warnings issued tonight through tomorrow afternoon. If you have not done so yet now would be a great time to go to your smart phone's app store and download the KLTV weather app for your phone.
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